Average global temperatures are likely to rise between 1.1 and 6.4°C (with a best estimate of 1.8 to 4°C) above 1990 levels by the end of this century, depending to some extent on whether o not we reduce our emissions of greenhouse gases.

This will result in a further rise in global sea levels of between 20 and 60cm by the end of this century, along with continued melting of ice caps, glaciers and sea ice, changes in rainfall patterns and intensification of tropical cyclones.

It is impossible to say for certain exactly how any given area will be affected, and we cannot accurately predict the timing or probability of events like major floods, storms, or fires. However, scientists do believe that these events will happen more often, and will become more severe, as temperatures increase.

The UK Climate Impacts Programme (UKCIP), which was set up by the government to assess the effects of climate change in the UK, has published a report detailing the extent of change already observed in the UK, and presenting four alternative scenarios of how climate change might affect the UK during the next 100 years, depending on levels of greenhouse gas emissions.

• The UK will become warmer, possibly by 2 to 3.5 degrees C, with greater warming in the south and east than in the north and west. Parts of the southeast may see warming of up to 5 degrees C by the 2080s.

• Higher summer temperatures will become more frequent as very cold winters become increasingly rare.

• Winters will become wetter and summers will become drier in all parts of the UK. Summer precipitation may decline by 50 percent or more by the 2080s, and winter precipitation may increase by up to 30 percent.

• Snowfall will decrease throughout the UK, with average snowfall over Scotland reduced by up to 90 percent by the 2080s.

• Episodes of heavy winter precipitation will become more frequent.

• Relative sea level around the UK will continue to rise, depending on the scenario and on the natural movement of land.

Scotland’s sea level could rise by 58cm, while sea level in the south east may rise by between 26 and 86cm by the 2080s.

• Extreme sea levels will occur more frequently, possibly 10 or 20 times more frequently in the east.

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